For years I played fantasy football, even back in the UK, playing on some pos by mail system I have studied stats, spreadsheets and mock drafts, read magazines and done a pile of research. The end result has been a complete lack of championships. I've got to the Big Dance at least twice and failed miserably. It's not that I've not been successful, I regularly make the playoffs, have shown a sizeable profit from these ventures but have no trophies.
With this in mind, and having piloted a spectacular train wreck last year (from 7-2 to missing the playoffs), I am changing things up. My strategy was always RB RB, and sometimes a third RB, followed by QB and some WRs. Once I took Tony Gonzalez in the 2nd round, and have been known to trade out of the first round when there was no one of "value" there. Given my lack of success, maybe my values are all wrong - a comment that has been made several times in my life.
So this year, I pick 8th - mainly a TD league with a few yardage and reception bonuses. I figure that the following will go in the top 7 picks:
Brady, Manning, LT, Westbrook, Peterson, Addai and Jackson. If one of those seven is there I would probably take them (depending on Manning's injury status). At eight, I have the following to look at - Portis, Randy Moss, or Marion Barber. I'm sure there are others, but work being what it is, and our little league season just finishing up, I haven't had time to do any real studying yet. Marion Barber would be a nice pick, but I worry about Felix Jones taking carries, which leaves me RB Portis and Randy Moss.
In years past, I would have taken the RB, but I flat out don't rate Clinton Portis. I have no idea why not, he is a good back in a good system, but I just don't like him. Which leaves me Randy Moss who is, well, Randy Moss. Do I dump the RB RB approach to take a stud WR, or am I being unfair to Clinton Portis because of the whole image thing? If I am, why am I considering Randy Moss?
Drafting at 8, 17 and 32, may well leave me no real RBs, particularly as I may end up with a QB in round 2 (Romo/Brees) and another WR in 3, but after last year, things are not as clear cut with the RBs as they once were. A team, with Moss, Romo, Anquan Boldin, maybe Earnest Graham and Brandon Jacobs may still be a decent enough team, with a couple of waiver wire pickups, it could be decent.
The other option I have is to dump the pick, stock up in rounds 3 and 4 and try to get 6 servicable starters. I guess this year I really have no clue as to what to do, but given that I've never won the trophy when I think I know what I'm doing, I don't think that's a problem.
Any thoughts or comments?